A University of Cincinnati study released on May 7 found that external events such as the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant effect on the success or failure of independently owned restaurants in Cincinnati. The research, conducted by UC College of Arts and Sciences student Hannah Dahlke, analyzed 15 years of food service licenses for new restaurants across the city’s 52 neighborhoods between 2008 and 2023.
The study is important because it highlights how factors beyond an owner’s control can dramatically influence whether a restaurant survives or closes. Dahlke examined more than 10,000 city food service licenses, ultimately focusing on 2,231 independently owned establishments after excluding chains, food trucks, institutions, sports venues, and private clubs. Over this period, she found that 1,346 eventually closed.
“The restaurant business is not easy,” Dahlke said. “In the data, you can see how external events affected restaurants. They struggled after the recession and pandemic.” Her findings showed spikes in closures following major economic disruptions: closures jumped to 13% in 2009 after the recession and to 11% in 2022 during the aftermath of the pandemic.
John Barker, president and CEO of the Ohio Restaurant & Hospitality Alliance, said “The spike in closures in 2009 and 2022 isn’t a surprise.” He explained that restaurants operate with some of the lowest profit margins among industries: “They don’t have much wiggle room. If you add an external event the magnitude of the recession or the pandemic, it puts weaker operators in peril.” Barker also noted that those able to adapt quickly with takeout or delivery services were more likely to survive.
Dahlke observed that Cincinnati had a comparatively low rate of first-year restaurant closures compared to national studies. She attributed this resilience partly to local support: “You have a population in Cincinnati where people support their restaurants and like to go out and eat,” she said.
Looking ahead, Dahlke hopes her research will help inform entrepreneurs about potential risks involved with opening new eateries. “I think it’s always nice to see that your research is able to help people,” she said.